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Measuring the road to AGI

In conversation with Greg Kamradt, President of ARC Prize

We talk about the evolution from ARC-AGI-1 to ARC-AGI-3 and the lifecycle behind each. ARC-3 alone cost ~$500-750K to build. Greg walks through the leading approaches to beating it (reverse-engineered world models vs. frame-search harnesses) and where models struggle today.

Also covered: ARC’s definition of AGI as human learning efficiency, why world models and memory matter, current ARC-3 scores, long-horizon evals, open vs. closed source dynamics, multimodal integration, the underinvestment in parametric learning, what’s next for agents (spending, agent-to-agent communication, always-on), and why vibe coding raises the floor but not the ceiling.

Chapters

00:14 Background & Joining ARC Prize

03:06 Role at ARC Prize & Founding Team

03:55 ARC1 to ARC3 Evolution

06:07 Building a Benchmark: Idea to Sunset

08:08 ARC4 & What’s Next

08:45 Approaches to Beating ARC

11:33 Why Benchmarks Matter

12:24 Who Are Benchmarks For

13:42 Evolution of Benchmark Difficulty

15:27 Long Horizon Agents & Evals

16:59 Defining AGI and ASI

18:37 Role of World Models

22:02 Where Models Struggle Today

22:57 Open Source vs Closed Source Models

25:52 Trends & What’s Exciting

27:03 Under-invested Research Areas

29:55 Vibe Coding & Role of Humans

32:18 Final Thoughts

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